02 Nov Dealing with Uncertainty in a concrete manner.
The coronavirus pandemic has tested us all. In the healthcare sector, many were called to immediate direct action to address COVID19: those working with patients, those developing vaccines or treatments, those ensuring access to medicines worldwide. Their efforts are critical to addressing the challenges we face with the pandemic. I was reminded recently of all my other colleagues whose mission it is to advance new treatments in non-COVID19 diseases. They face a challenge of their own: how to plan when there is no certainty about when or how we emerge from the pandemic.
Scenario planning is a powerful tool to help us assess many different futures, so we’re prepared to act on the specific future that reveals itself. We become flexible in our thinking, we can identify actions worth taking now, and set criteria for checking on future decisions. The essential steps are provided below for any set of decisions.
- Form a cross-functional team with a high degree of diversity. Augment your team if it’s often stuck in groupthink. Lateral thinking is essential.
- Have an expert in scenario planning from outside the team facilitate the work. This will ensure all the team members can participate equally. An independent facilitator will be attentive to all ideas and will keep team dynamics positive.
- Give the team an overview of what to expect. This will be an intensive effort. It starts by identifying the scenarios for what is most likely, somewhat likely and the least likely. Each scenario should be fully defined with timelines and specifics.
- For each scenario, use the same template. In your scenario templates, include key aspects that affect the decision, possible solutions, what actions need addressing today, an assessment of the probability of the scenario happening, and an estimate of the impact.
- Analyse the scenarios and associated plans. Make sure the team takes time to really think through each scenario as a team. The strength of the team in terms of its expertise and diversity will be key here to cross-fertilize ideas.
- Identify actions which are common across scenarios. If you see actions that are common across multiple scenarios, it may be worth initiating them preemptively. Likewise, some of the extreme scenarios may be so catastrophic in terms of their impact that you opt to initiate risk mitigation now.
With all this done, there is still one last step. Revisit regularly. The situation will evolve, your business context might evolve, some prior actions deemed too expensive may now be available at lower cost.
It’s better to have worked through several awkward scenarios in a virtual meeting room than be caught off guard in the future. It’s also helpful to have flexed and stretched the team’s mental muscles in a carefully orchestrated venue rather than under pressure and with little to no preparation. Last, it gives teams a productive way to deal with both anxieties and overly confident stances. At its best, scenario planning supports teams to be prepared for any eventual scenario.
A prior version, co-authored with Sarah Jarvis, was published in May 2020